The influence and implications of climate change on coffee berry borer and coffee production in East Africa
Scientists from icipe used the CLIMEX model to relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and to project the fitted climatic envelopes under two future climate scenarios [A2A (Intensive economic growth but regional and very heterogeneous development) and B2B (Diverse and local solutions to development, less intensive with lower population growth)]. In both scenarios, the situation with the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt Elgon regions, Mt Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi.
http://www.icipe.org/index.php/news/739-icipe-led-study-selected-by-plos-among-most-influential-on-qthe-ecological-impacts-of-climate-changeq.html and http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0024528
(icipe 05/08/2013 and PLoS ONE 6(9): e24528, 14/09/2011)